By Rebekah Morris for AZBEX
After years of lackluster K12 school construction activity in Arizona, the market sector is on track for a substantial upswing, thanks to significant new funding coming if voters approve bond questions at the ballot box in November.
Altogether, BEX research teams have identified more than $3.5B in K12 bond questions for the November election. Since BEX started tracking K12 bond issuances in 2012, the average ask has been $922M/year. 2023 is on track for a three-and-a-half-fold increase over that historical norm.
Arizona schools are woefully underfunded, ranking 48th in the nation according to the most recent Census data available. While the state has the responsibility for funding as a result of the Students FIRST reform back in 1998, the legislature has consistently failed to meet this statutory obligation. The result is individual districts take on debt to finance new school construction, upgrades to existing campuses and a host of other expenses the state does not cover. The debt they take on is in the form of bond financing, subject to voter approval. Click here for a recent media report on the state of school funding.
Who’s Asking for What?
BEX has identified 21 individual school districts across the state pursuing voter approval to take on bond debt. The total asked of voters amounts to $3.51B.
While individual projects are a little tougher to cull from bond packets—most just lump all projects into the generic description of ‘building upgrades and expansions’—we were able to fund some specific projects referenced:
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $4.8M in Booth-Fickett K-9 Magnet for facility repairs and upgrades;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $4.6M in Catalina High School repairs and upgrades;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $5.5M in Cholla High School repairs and upgrades;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $4.5M in Cooper Center repairs and upgrades;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $5.8M in Lineweaver Elementary to convert portable structures to permanent classrooms, repair and upgrade existing facilities;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $6M in Palo Verde High Magnet School repairs and upgrades, auto & welding shop renovation and fine arts renovation;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $6M in Pueblo High School repairs and upgrades, auto & welding shop renovation and fine arts renovation;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $14M in Sabino High School repairs and upgrades, auto & welding shop renovation;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $8M in Rincon/University High School repairs and upgrades, replace portables with permanent structures, auto & welding shop renovation and fine arts renovation;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $10M in Sahuaro High School repairs and upgrades, replace portables with permanent structures, replace the fire alarm, auto & welding shop renovation and fine arts renovation;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $5.5M in Santa Rita High School repairs and upgrades, replace portables with permanent structures, auto & welding shop renovation and fine arts renovation;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $12M in Tucson High Magnet School repairs and upgrades, vocational building renovation, new fire alarm, auto & welding shop renovation and fine arts renovation;
- Tucson Unified School District plans to invest approximately $6M in Utterback Middle School repairs and upgrades, a new fire alarm and fine arts renovation;
- Agua Fria plans to build a new high school;
- Mesa Public Schools will invest in secure lobbies at multiple campuses;
- Phoenix Union High School will be renovating and building new spaces at Metro Tech High School;
- Phoenix Union High School will build Phase II of the Academies Launch at Trevor G Browne High School;
- Phoenix Union High School will open a small school in South Phoenix/Laveen area;
- Phoenix Union High School will remodel a recently purchased space at 4250 N. Central Ave. and the building at 3701 W. Thomas Road;
- Queen Creek Unified School District plans two new elementary schools;
- Queen Creek Unified School District plans to complete Eastmark High School;
- Queen Creek Unified School District plans major renovations to Queen Creek High School;
- Queen Creek Unified School District plans additional classrooms and fields for Crismon High School;
- Litchfield Elementary School District plans to build a new $48M School #17 on a yet to be determined location;
- Osborn School District plans to build a new Performance/Auditorium Facility;
- Liberty Elementary School District plans two new schools at yet to be determined locations;
- Liberty Elementary School District plans a Phase 2 District Complex;
- Sahuarita Unified School District plans to build new education spaces, early childhood expansion classrooms, NJROTC Space Expansion and a new fine arts performing arts theater;
- Willcox Unified School District plans a new $2.5M multi-purpose room on the elementary school campus.
What are the Chances of all Bonds Passing?
Zip. Zero. Stingy with Dinero (forgive my Jay-Z rap reference here, I couldn’t resist). Not all bonds are going to pass the ballot in November. Historically, voters have approved 73% by dollar volume each year. Unfortunately, the trend since 2020 has been ever-increasing fail rates as seen in the graph below. In fact, starting in 2020, voters have declined to support bond questions to the tune of rejecting, respectively, 48.1%, 68.5% and 39.2% of bond dollars asked of them.
With such a high volume of bond questions on the ballot to start with, it seems a good bet that funds will be flowing into local K12 districts for new school construction projects for the next several years.
