Lumber future prices have plummeted for the second time in two years, indicating a steep slowdown in U.S. construction and possibly hinting at a pending recession.
Lumber futures closed at $410.80/1,000 board feet on Sept.26, returning to pricing levels found at the start of the pandemic. Two-by-four costs have fallen more than 70% from their high $1,400/1,000 board feet in March.
Pricing service Random Lengths reported its index is down more than 60% since March. It blamed the Q1 surge on buyers hoarding wood in an attempt to mitigate supply chain worries.
The drop is also being read as an indicator of success for the Federal Reserve’s campaign of interest rate hikes to lower inflation. As construction starts decrease and supply worries decrease, builders are less inclined to stockpile lumber.
New housing building permits fell 10% in August. The revised rate for July was down 14.4% Year-over-Year. Homebuilder confidence has fallen for nine consecutive months and is at its lowest point since early 2020.
Cooling the superheated housing market is a specific target of the Fed’s rate increase campaign. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated a better alignment between supply and demand is a long-term goal of the campaign. He also warned a recession is increasingly likely given current economic indicators. (Source)