By Roland Murphy for AZBEX
Regular readers of AZBEX who see the “Editorial Analysis” tag at the start of a column can usually expect to see some snark, some calling out of short-sighted councils and administrative bodies, and the excoriation of whatever NIMBY group is trying to derail a viable project at any given moment.
We’re sorry (not sorry) to disappoint, but today’s column is actually centered around a recent report with mostly good news.
Fair warning and a disclaimer: There will be some discussion of Trump administration programs and policies. We fully acknowledge President Trump is a lightning rod topic and we’re neither endorsing nor opposing the administration or its policies and programs.
With that said, it appears, after decades of neglect and a late, haphazard start in addressing the issue, workforce development in the skilled trades may finally be on the rise.
Starting 2025 ‘On Fire’
In its Q1 2025 State of the Trades report, BlueRecruit has found:
- The skills trade workforce is seeing generation-high levels of enrollment;
- Some specialty trades are experiencing skyrocketing demand, and
- Positive changes are taking place in the General Labor sector as a result of Trump administration policy changes.
BlueRecruit is a hiring service that specializes in matching skilled trades workers with companies seeking to hire. The service began operations in 2019.
In its latest report, BlueRecruit found trades hiring is up 376% year-over-year for Q4 2024-Q1 2025.
Interestingly, with the increase in interest, employers have been empowered to be more selective. As just one example, the report noted, “The requirement for a clean criminal record by employers increased by an astounding 10% compared to Q4. This is the single largest increase in a single quarter in the history of the SoTT and shows a clear policy change by employers nationwide.” Also on the selectiveness front, 52% of employers currently require a valid driver’s license.
Education requirements versus applicant education levels are also trending positively, with job seeker education significantly exceeding the minimums.
- 27% of employers have no education requirements, while only 4% of applicants report no formal education;
- 29% require a GED certificate; 7% of applicants report a GED as their highest level of education;
- 38% of employers require a high school diploma; 49% of applicants are high school graduates, and
- 6% of employers insist on some amount of post-secondary education, a requirement met by 40% of job seekers.
Also of note, even though diversity, equity and inclusion programs and mandates are being rolled back across the country and across industries, skilled trades is seeing a surge in “non-traditional” applicants. BlueRecruit found since November, 42% of job seekers using its service have been female, with 49% younger than 35, and 11% veterans.
Who’s Hiring, and For What?
Eight of the top 10 states for skilled trades hiring are east of the Mississippi River. BlueRecruit’s breakdown does not provide source numbers or percentages, but the list is comprised of:
- Texas,
- North Carolina,
- Florida,
- Michigan,
- Georgia,
- Virginia,
- California,
- Ohio,
- Tennessee and
- New York.
The geographic dispersal is cause for optimism, as it signifies the upswing does not stem from a boom in a particular region.
The most in-demand trades targeted by employers are:
- HVAC tech,
- Auto mechanic,
- Plumber,
- Electrician,
- Carpenter,
- Fabricator,
- Manufacturing technician and
- Directional driller.
On the wage front, the report notes a near parity between employers and job seekers nationally. General laborers are earning an average hourly wage of $23.68, while requesting $23.41. The earned wage represents an increase of $2.40, the largest quarterly increase since BlueRecruit started tracking and publishing its State of the Trades report.
What About Arizona?
Unfortunately, despite leading pipelines in some sectors, most notably Industrial construction, Arizona has not yet cracked the top ranks in BlueRecruit’s surveys.
As noted in BEX Founder and President Rebekah Morris’ market presentation earlier this year in the 2025 BEX Construction Activity Forecast, Arizona construction employment was statistically flat for 2024. (AZBEX, Feb. 7)
Also, even though Newmark reported in January Phoenix leads the nation in manufacturing job growth, that growth has not rippled out to other skilled trade sectors to any significant extent.
We are still waiting for the January and February employment numbers from the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity. When we asked AOEO officials about the expected release date, they said the January and February jobs reports for states are released in March. The January report is expected March 13, with the February report expected March 27.
In December 2024, the Arizona Construction sector dropped 3,700 jobs. The sector also shed a total of 3,000 for the year. (AZBEX, Jan. 28)
Immigration and Other Policies
President Trump has made it clear returning skilled trades jobs to American citizens is a top priority of the administration. Regardless of any other thoughts and opinions on the matter, the administration’s focus on cracking down on illegal immigration and eliminating the wage depression those workers bring to the labor pool may already be having an effect, according to BlueRecruit’s assessments of wage growth and criminal background and educational requirements.
In concluding its report, BlueRecruit said, “While the argument can be made that such immigration reforms will increase labor cost and further worsen a tight labor market, it is our position that these policy changes will ultimately prove beneficial for U.S. workers and help develop the next generation of skilled workers seeking entry-level positions.”
Workforce Education and Policy
We found BlueRecruit’s State of the Trades report through a social media post by Mike Rowe. We won’t belabor identifying Rowe with a lengthy biography. We assume most people in construction and the trades will be familiar with his work on the TV shows “Dirty Jobs,” “Somebody’s Gotta Do It,” “How America Works,” and others celebrating and highlighting work in the skilled trades.
What some may not know is Rowe’s advocacy for skilled trades workforce development, training and education. He has been a vocal opponent of the long-standing educational policy steering every student toward a four-year degree and has spent nearly two decades advocating for the re-expansion of skills-based education as a viable and desirable option.
As many leaders in construction-based firms and associations have pointed out over the years, the national policy of focusing education efforts almost exclusively on readying students for post-secondary education has been a primary contributor to the ongoing shortage of skilled labor in the U.S. It has also been a primary contributor to the ongoing student loan financial crisis.
That policy has also led to a deepening of the stigma associated with manual labor, even though those jobs often pay a higher wage with greater benefits and shorter work weeks than so-called “professional” positions.
Those efforts took serious root in 1980, deepened in the 1990s under the first Clinton administration and the focus on shifting the United States from a “manufacturing economy” to a “service economy,” and have continued to be embraced to varying degrees by most elected leaders ever since.
The Trump administration’s focus on returning manufacturing and related jobs to the U.S. was cited among the key policy planks leading to his reelection last year. Despite the repercussions current immigration and tariff policies may have, the initial data shows a net positive effect on job opportunities in the skilled trades, although some of that credit must also be shared with the Biden administration’s massive funding increases for infrastructure and other development projects.
Regardless of political policies, the pragmatic challenges facing skilled trade workforce development consist primarily of challenging the stigma of hands-on work and providing opportunities for training and education.
Rowe started putting his (and his donors’) money where his mouth is in 2008 with the establishment of the MikeRoweWORKS Foundation to fund scholarship opportunities for applicants looking to enter the skilled trades. The foundation has since awarded more than $11M in what it refers to as “Work Ethic Scholarships.”
Rowe’s group is one of many. Countless companies around the country, including in Arizona, have partnered with community colleges and other educational outlets to promote job training, and many employers offer paid apprenticeships for workers to earn their certifications and certificates while earning a paycheck.
Even matchmaker BlueRecruit understands which side its bread is buttered on and has created an Apprenticeship Program Guide for employers.
While construction labor and skilled trade development are certainly not out of the woods yet, and while current policies are an unquestionably mixed bag, this is one of the few reports with actual data we have seen in a long time that gives us a sense of hope that the long period of skilled labor neglect and programmatic starvation may soon be rounding a corner.