By Roland Murphy for AZBEX
Community Hospital Association has put forth a plan for a new 80-unit assisted living and memory care facility across from Wickenburg Community Hospital. CHA is requesting a rezoning from Major Street Commercial to Multiple Family Residential, lot consolidation, a conditional use permit and several setback variances to enable development of Hassayampa Haven.
The proposed development site at the NWC of Tegner Street and Bralliar Road is irregularly shaped, with a 5:1 length-to-width ratio. The long, thin site requires the buildings be of an elongated design to maximize what can be built. An existing office building and parking area on the east side of the lot would be demolished as part of the development.
According to the project description, “The memory care portion of the building will be a single-story, wood-frame building. There will be a one and two-story common element connecting this memory care with the two-story assisted living wing on the west end. The memory care wing will contain a secured, private courtyard allowing residents safety, dignity, and freedom to enjoy the outdoors on their own schedule.”
The requested variances deal primarily with reducing setbacks to accommodate the buildings’ design which includes a porte cochere similar to that of the hospital across the street. The feature is intended to provide a welcoming point for arriving residents and visitors and to promote a sense of connection between the hospital and the Hassayampa Haven.
In summing up the project’s need and appeal, the submitted narrative says, “An Assisted Living and Memory Care Community will bring much needed services to the town to meet current and future demands in a location that is most effective across from the hospital and other clinics. As a building that is residential in nature, it provides for a transition between the community services located along Bralliar and the residential uses to the north of the property. Maintaining a buffer along the residential uses as well as large amounts of landscaped open spaces along street frontages and integrated with the building layout will ensure a positive impact on the surrounding uses and neighborhood.”
The Wickenburg Planning and Zoning Advisory Commission is scheduled to hear the requests Sept. 29. Planning staff has recommended its approval.
Market Pummeled by COVID, Continues to Improve
The COVID-19 pandemic hit senior facilities particularly hard. Given the pandemic’s disparate impacts on the elderly and infirm, occupancy dropped at senior-oriented properties as residents fled to minimize the risk of living in more dense, enclosed locations.
By Q1 2021, senior housing occupancy across types had hit a record low of 78.8% in the U.S., according to the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care. The group’s April 2021 announcement reported six straight quarters of occupancy declines, noting Q1 was the fourth quarter since the start of the pandemic.
Looking particularly at assisted living and independent living properties, NIC reported, “Assisted living occupancy fell a full two percentage points to 75.5% in the first quarter, and independent living occupancy dropped 1.6 percentage points to 81.8%. Since March 2020, assisted and independent living occupancy fell by 9.5 and 7.9 percentage points, respectively.”
By Q3 of 2021, the market was well into a rebound. In its Oct. 2021 announcement, NIC reported, “A significant rebound in demand and modest increase in supply contributed to the occupancy rate increase. Demand increased by 12,318 units in NIC MAP’s Primary Markets, the strongest unit increase since NIC MAP Vision began reporting the data in 2005. At the same time, inventory increased by 3,441 units – the smallest unit count increase since the first quarter of 2019 – while the number of units under construction were the fewest since 2015.”
The recovery included healthcare-focused senior living facilities. NIC reported:
- “Assisted living occupancy increased to 76.9%, up from its pandemic low of 75.4% in the first quarter of 2021 but still below its pre-pandemic level of 85.0%.
- “Independent living occupancy increased to 83.2%, up from its pandemic low of 81.8% in the first quarter of 2021 but still below its pre-pandemic level of 89.7%.
- “Nursing care occupancy increased to 76.3%, up from its pandemic low of 74.1% in the first quarter of 2021 but still below its pre-pandemic level of 86.6%.”
All portions of the senior market had been concerned about overbuilding, competition and timing before the pandemic. Market experts cautioned developers not to dive back into new construction plans too deeply or too quickly in their enthusiasm to shake off pandemic doldrums once the crisis subsided and a sense of normalcy returned.
In a March 2022 presentation to NIC members, Chief Economist Beth Mace celebrated the sector’s rebound while still advising caution and strict due diligence. She said, “Make sure you understand what other development is happening, make sure there is not any land near you that’s entitled to become senior housing in the next few years.”
Along with basic supply and demand, Mace presented three major concerns for the senior-directed sector:
- An ongoing post-pandemic shortage of facility staff,
- Net Operating Income impacts fueled by lower revenue and higher, inflation-fueled expenses, and
- Translating census growth among seniors into occupancy growth.
The last point was of considerable interest to Mace in her comments, given that people becoming age- and income-qualified for senior facilities have a wide variety of options available to them in the general market. “You really need to be careful that you build the housing that the consumer really wants,” she said.
A Positive Outlook Needs Creative Design
Barring another pandemic or other black swan event, the outlook for the senior assisted living-focused residential sector remains robust. Market research and consulting firm Grand View Research in its “U.S. Assisted Living Facility Market Size Report, 2030” market summary reported, “The U.S. assisted living facility market size was valued at USD 87.4 billion in 2021 and is expected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 5.48% from 2022 to 2030. Major factor driving the market growth is the growing geriatric population seeking companionship, security, and assistance with daily activities, are residing in ALFs. The rise in the geriatric population due to increased life expectancy is expected to grow rapidly in the future.
“According to National Institute on Aging, globally, around 8.5% of the population is aged 65 and above. As per data published by Population Reference Bureau, the number of Americans aged 65 years & above is projected to reach 95 million by 2060, from 52 million in 2018.”
There is still an abundance of opportunity in the sector, particularly since the average facility age is 17 years, and the demographic and its needs have evolved significantly since much of the existing inventory came online.
Market penetration for senior living remains at approximately 11%. Mace urged the development sector of the industry to focus on new design and diversification in their offerings to enhance senior facilities’ appeal to new prospective residents, noting reaching the 89% that is currently eligible but not currently looking at senior communities is key to improving absorption and other market dynamics.
“If we’re able to increase the penetration rate by just a little bit, we can take all the new supply that’s coming in pretty quickly,” Mace said.
