By Roland Murphy for AZBEX
Construction employment in Arizona is expected to see annualized growth of 2.2% through 2033, according to the Arizona 2023-2033 Projected Employment Report, published last week by the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity.
The 2.2% rate puts Construction as the second-leading major sector tracked for employment purposes in the state. Health Care and Social Assistance led the 12 segments, referred to by AOEO as “supersectors.”
Growth by Supersector
While the 2.2% expected annualized growth in Construction employment is significant, that number does not represent the entire picture for some reporting areas.
Yuma, Flagstaff, Prescott, Lake Havasu City-Kingman and Sierra Vista-Douglas combine Mining and Construction into one category in reporting their job sector totals. The new report examines projections by county, and all counties expect overall increases. However, the Natural Resources and Mining supersector is the only one of the 12 expected to show a loss over the sample period, which may slightly affect the Construction numbers in the relevant locations.
According to the report, Natural Resources and Mining is expected to decrease by 0.3%.
The supersectors ranked by annualized growth break out as follows:
- Health Care and Social Assistance: 2.6%;
- Construction: 2.2%;
- Manufacturing: 1.5%;
- Leisure and Hospitality: 1.3%;
- Professional and Business Services: 1.3%;
- Trade Transportation and Utilities: 1.2%;
- Other Services: 1.2%;
- Financial Activities: 0.7%;
- Information: 0.7%;
- Educational Services: 0.3%;
- Government: 0.3%, and
- Natural Resources and Mining: -0.3%.
Overall Projected Growth
Across the state and including all supersectors, the report predicts an increase of 486,348 jobs by 2033, for a total of slightly more than 3.92 million. This makes for an annual change of 1.3%, which far outpaces the national projection of 0.4% for the 10-year period.
“Over the previous ten years (2013 to 2023),” the report says, “Arizona employment increased by 765,935 jobs (2.6% annual change), to 3,434,790 jobs in 2023 from 2,668,855 jobs in 2013. By comparison, United States employment grew 1.3% annually from 2013 to 2023.”
All Counties Grow
The AOEO report predicts all 15 Arizona counties will see job growth over the 10-year projection period. As would normally be expected, Maricopa County leads expectations, with an annualized job growth rate of 1.5%. Much more surprisingly, Graham County—which was Arizona’s third-least populous in the 2020 census, with a reported population of approximately 38,500 residents and an estimated 2023 population of slightly more than 39,500—was second, with a projected growth rate of 1.4%.
Yavapai and Pinal counties tied for the next position at 1.2%, followed by Greenlee and Mohave counties, both of which are expected to see annualized growth of 1.1%. Apache County had the lowest projection, with an anticipated rate of just 0.1%.
While the report does not provide numerical job gain expectations for all 15 counties, Maricopa and Pima counties are the projected leaders in the overall totals, with 40,211 and 3,284 jobs, respectively.
The full report is available here.