Three 2021 Growth Trends to Watch in Surprise

Sterling Grove by Toll Brothers in Surprise, located west of the Loop 303 at Cactus Road. Credit: LinkedIn

By Jeanine Jerkovic for City of Surprise 
When you’re a city called “Surprise,” it’s safe to say that constant change is a bit of a norm, however 2020 accelerated more change than ever for us – and somewhat for the better. 
After 2020, we could all use some positivity, and the top three 2021 economic growth trends to watch in Surprise and the Northwest Greater Phoenix might actually signal positive growth ahead. 
Homes, Homes and More Homes 
By the end of 2020, Arizona hit a 14-year peak in single-family home growth, closing the year with an estimated 40,800 single-family permits and an additional 46,900 single family permits estimated for 2021. 
With a more-than 300 square mile planning area, Surprise is absorbing a tremendous share of this home growth, along with its West Valley neighboring communities of Peoria and Buckeye. Surprise is on target to add between 2,000-3,000 new single-family residences to its market each year for the next decade. Surprise is estimated to grow from a population of almost 150,000 today to 215,000 by 2030, according to the Maricopa Association of Governments. 
Retail Rising 
While many small businesses nationally are certainly struggling and closing – in fact 25 percent in Arizona have closed due to COVID – there is evidence Arizona’s consumer retail spending is recovering. Arizona’s retail spending is up by 17 percent since before the COVID pandemic, and the City of Surprise retail spending is up by an incredible 24 percent over last year. Additionally, the Surprise is seeing tremendous interest in new business openings and new retail corridor development.    
Despite the COVID pandemic, new retailers have started construction or opened their doors in Surprise. Along the Loop 303, the SimonCRE Master Plan in Prasada with 890KSF of new commercial space was submitted for development review. 
Manufacturing to the Max 
2021 might be the ‘year of the manufacturer’ in Surprise and the West Valley from a job growth perspective.  
Arizona is currently ranked #3 for job growth nationally; and transportation and warehousing industry growth increased by 10 percent in Arizona this year. Surprise has 300 acres of “BNSF certified” shovel-ready sites in its award-winning Surprise Rail Plex to offer. (Source) 

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