By CBRE
CBRE is raising its forecast for hotel performance both in Phoenix and nationally on the heels of industry gains in Q2 2022 and the expectation of slightly positive GDP growth in 2023.
Phoenix Conditions
In Phoenix, the Average Daily Rate is expected to increase 23.3% to $161.06 in 2022 and is forecasted to increase 3.2% to $166.29 in 2023, passing pre-pandemic levels and up from CBRE’s previous 2022 and 2023 projections of $154.46 and $161.47, respectively.
Revenue Per Available Room is expected to increase 35.6% to $109.31 in 2022 and is also expected to pass pre-pandemic levels with a 7% increase to $116.93 in 2023. This forecast is an increase from the original 2022 and 2023 projections of $100.32 and $110.81, respectively.
Occupancy is expected to increase 9.9% in 2022 to 67.9%, up from the previous 2022 forecast of 64.9%. Occupancy is also expected to approach pre-pandemic levels in 2023 with a 3.6% increase to 70.3%.
The National View
CBRE has revised its forecast for the second half of 2022 to a gain in RevPAR of 14.7% year-over-year, up from the previous projection of 13.1% year-over-year. The revision is predicated on a 3.5 percentage point increase in expected ADR growth compared to the previous forecast issued in May 2022, as well as a 2.2 percentage point reduction in CBRE’s demand forecast.
U.S. hotel industry performance was stronger than expected in Q2 despite a decline in GDP and the highest inflation in more than 40 years. Strength in the quarter was the result of continued improvements in group business, inbound international travel, and what may have been a peak in leisure travel this cycle.
Q2 RevPAR reached $98.84, up 38% year-over-year, and an all-time quarterly high at 106% of 2019’s level. RevPAR growth was driven mainly by ADR (up 25.5%), followed by occupancy (up 9.9%), demonstrating travelers’ limited price sensitivity in many peak demand markets. CBRE’s baseline-scenario forecasts do not contemplate an international war, a pervasive recession, or a more acute COVID variant. CBRE also produces forecasts based on upside and downside scenarios.