What's Hot

    Major General Plan Amendments Requested for 1,800-acre Florence Area

    September 5, 2025

    Mesa Approves 29-Unit Townhome Plan

    September 5, 2025

    VanTrust Announces 1.1MSF Industrial Plan in Glendale

    September 5, 2025
    Facebook Twitter Instagram
    AZBEX
    NEWS TICKER
    • [September 5, 2025] - Major General Plan Amendments Requested for 1,800-acre Florence Area
    • [September 5, 2025] - Mesa Approves 29-Unit Townhome Plan
    • [September 5, 2025] - VanTrust Announces 1.1MSF Industrial Plan in Glendale
    • [September 5, 2025] - Construction Job Openings Up 77,000 YoY
    • [September 5, 2025] - Arizona Projects 09-05-25
    • [September 3, 2025] - TSMC Building Water Reclamation Plant
    • [September 3, 2025] - Pinal Airpark Gets OK, Funding for Air Traffic Tower
    • [September 2, 2025] - 336 Apartments Coming to Casa Grande Commons
    Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn
    • Home
    • News
      1. View Latest
      2. Planning & Development
      3. Local News
      4. Classifieds
      5. Editorial Analysis
      6. Budgets & Funding
      7. Commercial Real Estate
      8. People on the Move
      9. Arizona Projects
      10. Legislation & Regulations
      11. Trends

      Major General Plan Amendments Requested for 1,800-acre Florence Area

      September 5, 2025

      Mesa Approves 29-Unit Townhome Plan

      September 5, 2025

      VanTrust Announces 1.1MSF Industrial Plan in Glendale

      September 5, 2025

      TSMC Building Water Reclamation Plant

      September 3, 2025

      HonorHealth to Build on Former Amkor Site in Vistancia

      September 2, 2025

      Buckeye City Council Discusses Annexing Land for Community Master Plan

      August 29, 2025

      Round 3 of BuildItAZ Grants Announced

      August 26, 2025

      Magazine Tackles Construction Crisis by Inspiring Teen Girls to Enter Skilled Trades

      August 22, 2025

      Scottsdale Hospitals War May Heat Up with New Banner Request

      July 29, 2025

      Glendale Voters to Determine VAI Resort’s Fate

      May 16, 2025

      Legislation Would Effectively Strip NIMBYs of Referendum Tool

      February 11, 2025

      2025 Forecast Tries to Clarify an Uncertain Market

      February 7, 2025

      RTA Funding Proposal Stirs Controversy

      August 15, 2025

      Ariz. LIHTC to Sunset Under New Budget

      July 8, 2025

      State Government Shutdown Averted as Hobbs Signs Budget

      July 1, 2025

      Arterial Life Cycle Program Covers 20 Years of Street Development

      June 27, 2025

      Commercial Real Estate 09-02-25

      September 2, 2025

      Commercial Real Estate 08-26-25

      August 26, 2025

      Commercial Real Estate 08-19-25

      August 19, 2025

      Commercial Real Estate 08-12-25

      August 12, 2025

      Industry Professionals 09-02-25

      September 2, 2025

      Industry Professionals 08-26-25

      August 26, 2025

      Industry Professionals 08-19-25

      August 19, 2025

      Industry Professionals 08-12-25

      August 12, 2025

      Arizona Projects 09-05-25

      September 5, 2025

      Arizona Projects 08-29-25

      August 29, 2025

      Arizona Projects 08-22-25

      August 22, 2025

      Arizona Projects 08-15-25

      August 15, 2025

      Environmentalists Sue ADWR Over Benson-Area Developments

      September 2, 2025

      Pima County Latest to Amend Zoning for Data Centers

      August 22, 2025

      Tucson City Council Likely to Approve Water Restriction on Large

      August 19, 2025

      Ritz-Carlton Paradise Valley Fight Could End in Foreclosure

      August 15, 2025

      Construction Job Openings Up 77,000 YoY

      September 5, 2025

      Ariz. Construction Lost 400 Jobs in July

      August 19, 2025

      Experts Share on the Latest Industrial Trends at BEX Panel

      August 15, 2025

      Multifamily Developer Confidence Up in Q2

      August 12, 2025

      Major General Plan Amendments Requested for 1,800-acre Florence Area

      September 5, 2025

      Mesa Approves 29-Unit Townhome Plan

      September 5, 2025

      VanTrust Announces 1.1MSF Industrial Plan in Glendale

      September 5, 2025

      Construction Job Openings Up 77,000 YoY

      September 5, 2025
    • AZBEX
      • Subscribe
      • Solicitations
      • Classifieds
      • Advertising
    • DATABEX
      • DATABEX Log-In
      • Webinars
      • Monthly Snapshot
    • Events
      • 2025 Hospitality LMS
      • 2025 Public Works Conference
    • About Us
      • Meet the Company
      • Meet the Sales Team
      • Meet the Editorial Team
      • Meet the BEXperts
    • CIP Special Report
    AZBEX
    Home » Economic Development » Ariz. Economy May Expect Solid Recovery
    Economic Development

    Ariz. Economy May Expect Solid Recovery

    BEX StaffBy BEX StaffApril 24, 2020No Comments3 Mins Read
    Credit: University of Arizona
    Share
    Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Pinterest Email

    By George W. Hammond for AZ Big Media 
    There is still a huge amount of uncertainty about the future of the outbreak and the economic impacts on the Arizona economy associated with it. Regarding the outbreak, the question at this point is when government and self-imposed social distancing will ease. The April 2020 U.S. forecast from IHS Markit, which underpins the Arizona forecasts, assumes that social distancing begins to ease in the July-August period. 
    The epidemiological uncertainties create economic uncertainties. We are on track for a major downturn, the question is how bad and for how long. This forecast update is the second step in assessing the damage and the recovery. It projects a much more significant adverse shock to the state economy than the March Interim. As more hard data is released in coming months, we will know more about the economic impacts and the prospects for recovery. 
    For the April U.S. and Arizona forecasts, the baseline projections are assigned a 45 percent probability. The pessimistic scenario has a 35 percent probability and the optimistic scenario has a 20 percent probability. I view the baseline and pessimistic scenarios as being about equally likely. 

    Arizona Outlook 

    The national forecast is combined with my assumptions about the impact of industry shutdowns on employment and retail sales. I assume massive reductions in employment in leisure and hospitality and retail trade and significant shutdowns in personal services and health care, during the second quarter of 2020, driven by the government- and self-imposed social distancing measures. 
    To give you a sense of the estimated shutdown impact, employment in leisure and hospitality is assumed to drop from 335,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 91,000 in the second quarter of 2020. Trade, transportation, and utilities jobs drop from 546,000 in the last quarter of 2019 to 405,000 in the second quarter. Health care and social services jobs decline by 16,000 jobs as dentists, doctors, and physical therapists avoid non-emergency interactions with patients and clients. Personal services decline by 11,000. 
    Taxable sales at retail establishments and restaurants and bars also experience a huge decline in the second quarter. 
    The current baseline projections put the magnitude of the coming downturn at about 50 percent greater than the 2008-2009 recession but shorter in duration. Total nonfarm employment in Arizona declines by 48,000 from the first quarter to the third quarter of 2020. That translates into a peak-to-trough decline of 16.2 percent. For comparison, Arizona lost 305,000 jobs from peak to trough (quarterly) during the Great Recession. That was an 11.4 percent drop. 
    The state unemployment rate surges to 19.0 percent by the fourth quarter of 2020, but then drops rapidly. 
    Taxable retail sales decline this year, as job, income, and wealth declines take a toll on consumers. 
    Population growth slows, with reduced net migration, and that generates lower levels of housing permit activity. 
    Once we get past the shock this year, the recovery should be solid. Arizona was in very good shape before the outbreak and once the outbreak is under control, growth will accelerate significantly. 
    Growth rates will look very good initially, because we’re restarting large sectors of the economy. The forecast calls for the level of employment to return to its fourth quarter 2019 level by the end of 2022. 
    The pessimistic scenario assumes a deeper, more prolonged downturn. Arizona jobs decline by 695,000 from the last quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2020. That translates into a 23.4 percent drop. 
    Read more at AZ Big Media. 

    Arizona economy coronavirus COVID-19 economic impacts economic rebound economy Great Recession IHS Markit labor pandemic peak-to-trough retail sales taxable income trade employment Unemployment
    Share. Facebook Twitter Pinterest LinkedIn WhatsApp Reddit Tumblr Email

    Related Posts

    Buckeye City Council Discusses Annexing Land for Community Master Plan

    August 29, 2025

    Ariz. Construction Lost 400 Jobs in July

    August 19, 2025

    Mohave County May Remove Data Centers as Economic Development Goal

    July 23, 2025

    Leave A Reply Cancel Reply

    You must be logged in to post a comment.

    Our Picks

    Major General Plan Amendments Requested for 1,800-acre Florence Area

    September 5, 2025

    Mesa Approves 29-Unit Townhome Plan

    September 5, 2025

    VanTrust Announces 1.1MSF Industrial Plan in Glendale

    September 5, 2025

    Construction Job Openings Up 77,000 YoY

    September 5, 2025
    Stay In Touch
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • LinkedIn
    • YouTube
    Don't Miss
    Planning & Development

    Major General Plan Amendments Requested for 1,800-acre Florence Area

    September 5, 20250

    By Roland Murphy for AZBEX The Florence Planning and Zoning Commission will hold the first…

    Mesa Approves 29-Unit Townhome Plan

    September 5, 2025

    VanTrust Announces 1.1MSF Industrial Plan in Glendale

    September 5, 2025

    Construction Job Openings Up 77,000 YoY

    September 5, 2025

    BEX serves architecture, engineering and construction firms as well as all the ancillary product and service categories that market to them. These include manufacturing representatives, public agencies and private real estate organizations, specialty subcontractors and services providers related to our industry.

    Our Picks

    Major General Plan Amendments Requested for 1,800-acre Florence Area

    September 5, 2025

    Mesa Approves 29-Unit Townhome Plan

    September 5, 2025

    VanTrust Announces 1.1MSF Industrial Plan in Glendale

    September 5, 2025
    Contact Us

    Phone: 480-709-4190
    Address: P.O. Box 12196 Tempe, AZ 85284
    Email: sales@azbex.com

    Type above and press Enter to search. Press Esc to cancel.