Information from the Federal Reserve shows a housing pricing environment out of step with fundamentals to a degree not seen since before the Great Recession.
Among the factors raising concerns are national price-to-rent ratios and price-to-income ratios.
Impacting factors include low interest rates, COVID-stimulus programs and supply chain issues driving a fear of missing out on opportunities before prices rise even more, as well as an aggressive rate of speculation among investors.
While price appreciation is excessive, experts caution that is not a definition of a bubble in and of itself. Other factors, such as access to credit, rising materials and labor costs, and disposable income changes also have contributed to appreciation.
Of particular concern is a widely held belief that current price increases will continue. This was a contributing factor leading up to the last collapse, as it is a “self-fulfilling mechanism” that can lead to exponential growth.
One positive note is Fed economists’ belief that stronger household balance sheets would make any downturn softer than the Great Recession, as there is a better ability to tolerate disruption. (Source)